Strong Liberal Support in Pre-Election Poll

pre-election poll, pollster, predictionSince the election was called, our household has received nearly half a dozen phone calls from campaign offices looking to shore up support for local candidates, as well as from pollsters surveying how the vote might go down in ridings such as Kingston and the Islands.  The results of one such poll, conducted by Abacus Insider, suggests that the Liberals and the Progressive Conservatives are tied in a dead heat, with each party expected to receive support from 33 percent of all eligible voters respectively.  The report also reveals data that hits closer to home in the Limestone City, specifically stating that:

  • 14% of eligible voters are undecided; and
  • Liberals lead in Toronto and Eastern Ontario (area codes starting with K).

That last tidbit is likely the most provocative as it suggests that the Kiwala campaign may be poised to emerge victorious, thus continuing the 19 year reign of the Ontario Liberal Party in Kingston and the Islands.  So what?  Her win would effectively signal that local Liberal supporters are confident in Kiwala’s ability to lead, and silence the critics pertaining to who should have succeeded John Gerretsen.  Moreoever, a local Liberal majority would also suggest that the party’s past offenses have been forgiven or at least forgotten by voters in Kingston and the Islands.

Of course it’s worth acknowledging that pre-election polls have been totally wrong in the past.  Don’t believe me?  Check out just how wrong the pollsters were before the recent provincial elections in British Colombia, Alberta and Quebec.  Could Ontario and Kingston soon be added to that list?  Accordingly, this week’s poll asks:

How reliable are pre-election opinion polls?

  • I don't trust them. (46%, 58 Votes)
  • They usually get it right. (43%, 55 Votes)
  • Entirely accurate. (8%, 10 Votes)
  • Something else entirely. (3%, 4 Votes)

Total Voters: 127

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Considering the host of key local issues that will be discussed in upcoming debates and in Kingstonist’s upcoming interviews with all five candidates, the end of this political saga has yet to be written.  Suffice it to say, the only vote that truly counts is the one you make on election day, not the one you make over the phone during dinner or via some popup ad online.  With just over two weeks remaining until the Ontario election, there’s a lot that can happen to turn an undecided, or otherwise change the opinion of those of us who are supposedly already committed. What’s your prediction?

Photo by Juan Barredo.

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