Kingston and the Islands Early Election Prediction

Federal Election, Kingston and the IslandsIn 9 days, parliament will officially break for the summer, nudging a majority of MPs and starry eyed hopefuls onto the treacherous campaign trail. While the date of the next federal election is still months away, for many Canadians, and perhaps many Kingstonians, October 19th can not come soon enough.  There’s a tremendous buzz of discontent in the air, which depending upon your political leanings, can be directed at Prime Minister, the other Federal party leaders, the Senate, or some combination thereof.  Needless to say, it’s going to be a long summer of disturbing attack ads, promoted tweets, carefully orchestrated handshakes and baby kissing.

Kingston and the Islands have had quite the ride over the past four years, with heartbreaking losses such as the closure of Kingston Penitentiary and the Regional Treatment Centre, as well as the local Citizenship and Immigration office. We’re also fast approaching the departure of our beloved MP, Ted Hsu, who decided not to seek another term in order to be closer to his family.  His successor, Kingston’s former Mayor, Mark Gerretsen, has already ramped up his campaign in an effort to keep Kingston and the Islands’ painted that familiar shade of Liberal red. Of course the other parties have also selected there prospective MP candidates, including: Andy Brooke (Conservative); Nathan Townend (Green); and Daniel Beals (New Democratic Party).

If you were to forecast the local result based upon historical trends, you could easily call a win for the Grits who have won eight consecutive elections in Kingston. Even so, some early polls show a national surge in favor NDP, while others place the big three political parties in a dead heat, which could translate into a minority government. We’ve grown wary of predictive polls and for good reason: they’ve gotten it wrong more often than not. All irony aside, this week’s poll asks:

If you had to vote today, which party would you support in an election?

  • New Democratic Party (74%, 154 Votes)
  • Liberal Party (16%, 33 Votes)
  • Green (6%, 12 Votes)
  • Conservatives (3%, 7 Votes)
  • Undecided (1%, 3 Votes)

Total Voters: 209

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What issues influenced your early selection, and what’s the likelihood your pick might change in the coming months? Do you think Kingston and the Islands will be painted a new colour come the 20th of October, or remain a Liberal stronghold? Finally, what sort of federal outcome would you like to see, our otherwise are you fearful of?

Photo credit to Tim Norris.

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Harvey Kirkpatrick

Harvey Kirkpatrick is Kingstonist's Co-Founder. His features curiously explore urban planning, what if scenarios, the local food scene and notable Kingstonians. Loves playing tourist and listening to rap music. Learn more about Harvey...

4 thoughts on “Kingston and the Islands Early Election Prediction

  • June 15, 2015 at 12:52 pm
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    Anyone who is seriously considering voting Liberal after their pathetic performance on Bill C-51 has no idea what the word, 'Liberal', means…

    Reply
  • June 16, 2015 at 1:54 pm
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    I was very surprised Bennett didn't get the CPC nomination, which would have made the campaign a little more interesting. As it is, barring a Trudeau meltdown, the Gerretsen name will cruise to another local win

    Reply
  • June 22, 2015 at 9:52 am
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    I find it incredible that Trudeau forced all of the Liberal MPs to vote for C-51 which is clearly unconstitutional. He made a mistake but will not admit it. We already have a stubborn PM. We don’t need another.

    Reply

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